The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Democratizing the Nile River

The Nile River is a lifeline to close to three hundred million inhabitants from which half of them lives under the poverty line. Underdevelopment hinders the Nile River from playing a leading role in poverty eradication attempts across the Basin. Riparian states seem resolute to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals by democratizing the Nile River, and it seems inevitable.

Colonizing the Nile

Ensuring the continuous flow of the Nile River has been the guiding national security objective of successive administrations in Egypt, be it the Ottoman, the British, or successive Egyptian presidents, often at all but ill-advised costs. Whoever ruled Egypt followed a legal, political, or diplomatic endeavours to pursue the national security objective. Waters of the Nile should reach the land of the pharaohs disregarding the needs of millions of people living in the entire river basin. Countries beyond the Lake Nasser, most of them under the British colonial rule, were forced to enter into international agreements or arrangements forgoing their right to utilize the Nile River. ‘Legalized’ monopoly over the use of River Nile. 

However, the British deal with Ethiopia was different. Ethiopia, registering a significant victory over the Italian colonial army, had an advantage slightly over the British. King Menilik agreed only not to ‘arrest’ the flow of the River Nile. British were concerned that Ethiopia will use its ‘Nile Diversion Card’ in its relations with them. British concern was legitimate considering Ethiopia’s track record. Ethiopia used to threaten to diverge the course of the Nile River to pressure the Ottoman rulers in Egypt to ease religious oppression on Christian minorities in Egypt. Could Ethiopian emperors be able to divert the Nile from flowing downstream to Sudan and Egypt? Ethiopia had neither the motive nor the capability to divert the flow of the mighty Nile River.

Neo-Colonizing the Nile

After the British left Egypt, successive Egyptian presidents pursued a mixture of tactics to capitalize on the gains of the British. In this quest, Egypt attempted to annex Sudan and Eritrea, entered into an exclusionary treaty with Sudan, and built a vast reservoir. Egypt signed a bilateral agreement with Sudan and completed the Aswan High Dam. As H. Erlich famously captured Egypt’s triumph, “Ethiopia’s threat to interfere with the Nile- from twelfth-century Lalibella, fifteenth-century Zar’ a Ya’qob, to Aklilu Habte-Weld 1949, Haile Selassie 1950, and Mengistu 1980 lost its sitting as Aswan High Dam was born.” Ethiopia was no master of the Nile River more. However, the highness of Aswan Dam or the greatness of Lake Nasser could not change the mere fact that the Nile River stretches beyond Egyptian geographic boundary or the mighty Nile River also belongs to the people of the Nile basin beyond the Aswan High Dam.

Aswan High Dam

Thus, the 1959 Egypt – Sudan bilateral treaty over the utilization of the Nile waters and the Aswan High Dam was an attempt to consolidate ‘colonial right’ over the utilization of the Nile River. From that point onwards Egyptian national security revolves around maintenance of ‘colonial rights’ which they proudly call ‘historic.’ For half a century, Egypt successfully monopolized the utilization of the Nile River because the priority of most post-colonial Nile Basin countries was to consolidate the gains of political independence. However, it did not take much time for these states to realize that true independence can be realized and only sustained by addressing the historical underdevelopment through the utilization of natural resources, the Nile River as one.  

Decolonizing the Nile

After a decade-old negotiation, Nile Basin Countries put an end to the colonial arrangement over the Nile River as they signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement on the utilization of the River Nile. The democratization of the utilization of the river has started. The World Bank was instrumental in the attainment of this historic agreement over the Nile River. The treaty obligates the Nile riparian countries to cooperate on the conservation, management, and sustainable development of the Basin and its waters – virtues of democratized Nile Basin. However, Egypt’s ‘neo-colonial’ administration could not accept the democratization of the Nile River because the treaty and the Nile basin states rejected ‘colonial rights’ and upheld equitable utilization. 

Egypt was convinced that the new agreement on the Nile is a paper tiger because the actual utilization of the water resource requires a considerable investment, something the impoverished Nile basin states lack altogether. The ‘colonial rights’ continued to overshadow the utilization of the Nile waters until Ethiopia announced that it is constructing ‘Project X,’ later renamed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, in 2011. Ethiopia broke through the glass ceiling! Egypt’s colonial insurance policy from twenty-century veiled protectorate of British, to Nasser 1960s, Sadat 1970s, Mubarak 1990s, and el-Sisi 2010s lost its sitting as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was born – poetic justice to Erlich’s earlier words.

Democratizing the Nile

In history, Ethiopia’s decision to construct the Renaissance Dam will be remembered as the end of colonization and the beginning of the democratization of the Nile River. Egypt has neither a legal ground nor political leverage to stop the construction of the dam. Therefore, it resorted to the round table discussion. After years of negotiation, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt signed a landmark agreement on Declaration of Principles on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. 

Signing Ceremony of the DOP, March 23, 2015, Sudan (Khartoum)

The agreement rejected the age-old Egyptian ‘colonial right’ of utilization over the Nile and replaced it with equitable and reasonable utilization. Do not be surprised; the Egyptian president committed his country on a treaty whose bedrock principle is equity. It took the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam for Egypt to embrace equity over colonial rights. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam became the second most democratizing force next to the Cooperative Framework Agreement in the Nile Basin.

The Failed Revisionism

On 23^rd of March 2015, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan signed the Declaration on Principles, and the treaty launched the democratization wave of the Nile. The world was also hopeful that the principles of cooperation and equity as stipulated in the Declaration would soon transcend into the entire Basin. In other words, if Egypt accepted the principle of equitable utilization vis-à-vis Ethiopia, it is either automatic or natural for Egypt to allow the same principle to govern its water relations with the rest of the riparian countries. It proved to be wishful thinking!

President el-Sisi and President Trump in White House

Egypt wishes to swim against the wave of democratization – Egypt reverted to the colonial era. Egypt manipulated all the political, diplomatic, economic, security, and financial leverages to pressure Ethiopia to accept Egyptian ‘colonial rights’ over the Nile River to no avail. It is discouraging to witness Egypt’s recent revisionist attempt to curb the democratization of the Nile. Egypt relapsed! Why?

Facing the Music of Democratization of the Nile River

Egypt is more concerned about the precedence than the economic value of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The wave of democratization, once resonate around the Basin, will empower all the riparian countries to sustainably develop the Basin and its waters – a nightmare for the neo-colonial Egypt.

Absent an agreement to the contrary; riparian states will pursue the development of their watercourse. Bilateral negotiation with all the riparian countries will make matters worse for Egypt. As a result, Egypt will embrace Boutros-Ghali’s assertion that basin-wide cooperation is the only viable alternative for Egypt to guarantee a sustainable flow of the Nile. Egypt will sign the Cooperative Framework Agreement. Egypt will complete the democratization of the Nile basin!

It only takes pragmatic reconciliation of reality in the Nile Basin for Egypt to embrace the democratization of the Nile River. Democratization is a wave – it is inexorable!